The Astros announced that right-hander Jose Urquidywill undergo elbow surgery, ending his 2024 season. Houston also confirmed that righty Cristian Javierwill undergo season-ending elbow surgery, as was first reported Tuesdayby The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. The team didn’t specify the nature of either surgery, though Rome indicated in his original report that Javier would require Tommy John surgery. Urquidy’s surgery is being performed on Wednesday, so more details will likely be available once it is completed. Javier is slated to have his procedure performed on Thursday.
Urquidy, 29, opened the season on the injured list with a forearm strain and will now miss the entire campaign. He pitched a bit in the minor leagues on a rehab assignment last month, but he was lifted from his final outing of the year after experiencing renewed pain in his forearm/elbow. The Astros subsequently announced that Urquidy was seeking a second opinion, which is frequently an ominous sign for injured pitchers.
Urquidy has proven to be a reliable rotation cog in Houston when he's been healthy enough to take the mound. Outside of an ugly 5.29 ERA last year in a season plagued by shoulder troubles, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every season of his career, leaving him with a lifetime 3.98 mark in 405 MLB frames. His 19.6% strikeout rate is three percentage points below the league average, but Urquidy has offset that with a terrific 5.8% walk rate in his career. Home runs have been an issue, as is the case for many shorter righties with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him keep lefties at bay (.203/.255/.364).
Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that Urquidy could be headed for Tommy John surgery — which would be the second such procedure of his career. He previously had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2017. Urquidy also missed time in 2021 and 2023 due to shoulder injuries. Whether this new procedure is a standard Tommy John operation or a newer iteration that includes augmentation from an internal brace remains to be seen.
Either way, if this proves to be a UCL-related surgery, it may end Urquidy’s tenure with the Astros entirely. He’s being paid $3.75M this season and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Houston would likely need to commit the same salary to Urquidy again for a 2025 season mostly spent on the injured list.
Even if Urquidy agreed to the maximum 40% pay cut permissible under the arbitration system, that’d still be a notable price for a pitcher who might not make it back until late in the season — if he returns. If Urquidy had multiple seasons of club control remaining, the ’Stros might make that concession, but the right-hander is slated to become a free agent following the 2025 campaign. It’s always possible they’ll come to some kind of agreement on a two-year deal that’s backloaded with most of the salary falling in 2026, but the injury, unfortunately, renders Urquidy a clear non-tender candidate.
With regard to the 2024 season, the official losses of both Urquidy and Javier are a gut-punch for a floundering Astros club. Houston sits at 28-34, placing them seven games behind the division-leading Mariners and six games back of the third AL Wild Card spot.
Poor starting pitching has been the most prominent reason for Houston’s decline in the AL West. In addition to Urquidy and Javier, the Astros have seen Justin Verlander andFramber Valdez spend time on the injured list. Right-handersHunter Brown andJ.P. France — now on the minor league IL due to a shoulder injury — have taken significant steps back in 2024. RookiesSpencer Arrighetti and Blair Henleyhave been hit hard (the latter in a single MLB spot start). Even with Ronel Blancoamid a surprise breakout during his age-30 season, the Astros’ collective 4.71 rotation ERA ranks 26th in the majors.
Reinforcements should be in the form of righties Luis Garciaand Lance McCullers Jr., though neither pitcher’s return is imminent. Garcia, on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last June, is facing live hitters and could soon head out on a minor league rehab assignment. However, he’d presumably require several starts before being deemed an option for the MLB rotation. McCullers, who had flexor surgery last summer, is a few weeks behind Garcia in his recovery process. In theory, Garcia could be back around the All-Star break, with McCullers not far behind him — but that assumes no setbacks. And by that point, it’s also fair to wonder whether the Astros would feel the urgency to rush either pitcher.
Houston general manager Dana Brown said recently that he doesn’t envision any scenario where the Astros end up as trade deadline sellers, but it’s difficult to see how they’d be aggressive buyers if they fall much further back in the standings. There are just under eight weeks for the team to right the ship, and while a course correction is hardly implausible, the current paper-thin rotation depth means Houston will need its rotation to hold things down and perform much better while waiting on Garcia and McCullers.
Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, Brown and Arrighetti will carry on as the starting five for now, but Henley is the only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster. The Astros did sign leftyEric Lauer to a minor league deal last month, and they could easily open 40-man space for him by putting Javier or Urquidy on the 60-day injured list. But Henley has been tagged for a 5.44 ERA in Triple-A this season, while Lauer was torched for seven runs over three innings in his first start with Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston can ill-afford another injury of note on the big league staff.
This article first appeared on MLB Trade Rumors and was syndicated with permission.
